當機器成為超級智能人類該何去何從英語美文

Schumpeter: Techno wars

熊彼德：“鐵克諾” 之戰

An earlier sunny mood about technology and innovation has given way to pessimism.

在技術與創新領域，悲觀主義取代了先前的樂觀態度。

The most striking battle in modern business pits the techno-optimists against the techno-pessimists.

在現代商業中，高新技術樂觀派與悲觀派構成了激烈對峙的兩大陣營。

The first group argues that the world is in the middle of a technology-driven renaissance.

樂觀主義者聲稱，世界正處於技術驅動的復興中。

Tech CEOs compete with each other for superlatives.

各技術巨頭相互競爭，力求推出最優秀的產品。

Business professors say that our only problem will be what to do with the people when the machines become super-intelligent.

商學院教授則認為，唯一需要擔心的是，當機器發展為超級智能，人類該如何應對。

The pessimists retort that this is froth: a few firms may be doing wonderfully but the economy is stuck.

悲觀主義者則反譏道，以上言論不過是高談弘論：雖然少部分公司的確運行得不錯，但經濟已陷入停滯。

Larry Summers of Harvard University talks about secular stagnation.

哈佛大學的拉里.薩默斯就此提出了“長期停滯”。

Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, says that the American economy has eaten all the low-hanging fruits of modern history and got sick.

喬治梅森大學的泰勒.科文認為，美國經濟已耗盡現代史上一切唾手可得的成果而趨於病態。

Until recently the prize for the most gloom-laden book on the modern economy has gone to Robert Gordon of Northwestern University.

唱衰現代經濟勢的問鼎之作是1月出版的西北大學羅伯特.戈登寫的。

In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth”, published in January, Mr Gordon argues that the IT revolution is a minor diversion compared with the inventions that accompanied the second industrial one—electricity, motor cars and aeroplanes— which changed lives profoundly.

戈登在《美國興衰》一書中指出，第二次工業革命中，電力、汽車和飛機都曾給日常生活帶來翻天覆地的變化，而IT革命不過是小巫見大巫。

The current information upheaval, by contrast, is merely altering a narrow range of activities.

近年來，人們獲取信息的方式發生了劇變，但也僅僅是讓原本就為數不多的方式增添了些新花樣。

Now a new book, “The Innovation Illusion” by Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel, presents a still more pessimistic vision.

弗雷德裏克.埃裏克鬆和比約?恩格爾現發行了他們的新書《創新的假象》，書中表達了更為悲觀的看法。

Messrs Erixon and Weigel write that the very engine of capitalist growth, the creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, is kaput.

他們在書中寫道，資本主義發展的“核心引擎”(約瑟夫.熊彼特曾稱其為創造性破壞)已運作失常。

Aside from a handful of stars such as Google and Amazon, they point out, capitalism is ageing fast.

他們指出，除了如谷歌和亞馬遜等少數精英公司仍發展良好，資本主義整體已迅速老化。

Europe’s 100 most valuable firms were founded more than 40 years ago.

縱觀歐洲100家大公司，絕大部分都建立在40年前。

Even America, which is more entrepreneurial, is succumbing to middle-aged spread.

即使是更具創業精神的美國也難以抵擋公司中年化現象的.蔓延。

The proportion of mature firms, or those 11 years old or more, rose from a third of all firms in 1987 to almost half in 2012, and the number of startups fell between 2001 and 2011.

從1981到2012年間，資深公司(已建立11年或更長時間)由佔公司總數的1/3上升到佔一半左右，而2001到2011年間，新公司數量則一直下降。

People who extol free markets often blame such stagnation on excessive regulation.

自由市場的支持者經常把這種經濟停滯歸咎於政府管制過多。

That has certainly played its part.

這種説法的確有一定道理。

But the authors argue that stagnation has most to do with the structure of capitalism itself.

然而，《創新的假象》的作者則認為，這種停滯與資本主義自身的結構有更大關係。

Companies are no longer actually owned by adventurous capitalists but by giant institutions such as the Vanguard Group (with more than $3 trillion under management) which constantly buy and sell slivers of ownership for anonymous investors.

事實上，公司已不再由具冒險精神的資本家控制，而是由像先鋒集團(the Vanguard Group)這種大型機構掌控。該公司資產逾3萬億美元，不斷為匿名投資者購買和出售所有權。

These institutions are more interested in predictable returns than in enterprise.

比起商業發展，他們更看重可預測回報。

It is not all Mark Zuckerbergs at the top, the authors posit.

作者認為並非所有高層都像馬克.扎克伯格一樣。

The big firms are answering the call for predictability by hiring corporate bureaucrats.

多數大公司都僱傭企業管理者來滿足投資者對可預測性的渴求。

These people shy away from risky investments in new technology.

這些企業管理者往往會避免對新技術進行風險投資。

After rising relentlessly as a share of GDP in 1950-2000, investment in IT began declining in the early 2000s.

在1950到2000年間，IT行業投資曾作為GDP的一部分持續增長，但於2000年早期開始衰退。

Instead of shaking up markets, bureaucratic CEOs focus on squeezing the most out of their sunk costs and fight to defend niches.

比起顛覆市場，官僚型CEO更注重於盡可能壓縮沉沒成本和捍衞利基市場。

They hoard cash, buy back their firms’ shares and reinforce their positions by merging with former rivals.

他們通過儲備現金，回購自家公司股份以及與競爭對手合併來鞏固公司的市場地位。

The gloomsters’ case is true to some extent but it is overstated.

這些悲觀人士的言論在一定程度上是對的，但還是言過其實了。